Hawks vs. Pelicans
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (80%) · Hawks at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
5
Hawks 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$9.79
60.4¢ → 61.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Hawksavg 61¢ | $602.98 | $602.98 | +$0 | 54% 17133-14341 (31474) |
OD Oddstorm | Hawksavg 59.2¢ | $296.6 | $304.59 | +$8 | 38% 385-628 (1013) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Hawksavg 60.2¢ | $184.49 | $187.03 | +$4.07 | 54% 388-337 (725) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Pelicansavg 42.6¢ | $85.27 | $78 | -$2.27 | 50% 3904-3887 (7791) |
HE HerdoniaARB<$100 | Pelicansavg 39¢ | $45.42 | $46.09 | +$0.67 | 54% 3326-2874 (6200) |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 39¢ | $25.69 | $25.69 | -$0 | |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 59¢ | $19.72 | $20.39 | +$0.67 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Hawksavg 61¢ | $15.86 | $15.86 | +$0 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
Invested
$602.98
Value
$602.98
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
17133-14341 (31474)
Invested
$296.6
Value
$304.59
PnL
+$8
Record
38%
385-628 (1013)
Invested
$184.49
Value
$187.03
PnL
+$4.07
Record
54%
388-337 (725)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$85.27
Value
$78
PnL
-$2.27
Record
50%
3904-3887 (7791)
Invested
$45.42
Value
$46.09
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
3326-2874 (6200)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.86
Value
$15.86
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.