Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 38%
$6.4K
$0.55
52¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Overavg 52¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | +$31.73 | 53% 556-484 (1040) |
 nigiri99CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$25 | 50% 760-746 (1506) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52.6¢ | $326.5 | $335 | +$8.5 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
NM NM-PCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $161 | -$7 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
GC GC-PCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $168 | $161 | -$7 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48.8¢ | $11.69 | $11.01 | -$0.68 | 56% 693-539 (1232) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 54.4¢ | $8.81 | $8.81 | +$0 | 53% 2390-2132 (4522) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
Invested
$3,299.81
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$31.73
Record
53%
556-484 (1040)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$2,400
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$25
Record
50%
760-746 (1506)
Invested
$326.5
Value
$335
PnL
+$8.5
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
Invested
$168
Value
$161
PnL
-$7
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
Invested
$168
Value
$161
PnL
-$7
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$11.69
Value
$11.01
PnL
-$0.68
Record
56%
693-539 (1232)
Invested
$8.81
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2390-2132 (4522)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.