Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 20%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$19.27

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 54¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,592

Combined PnL-$31.99

Under8 traders

Total Value$469.89

Total Shares1,038

Combined PnL+$12.73

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 55.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$31.96	56% 3959-3128 (7087)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 43¢	$218.5	$228.66	+$10.16	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$133.17	$132.94	-$0.23	51% 793-768 (1561)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$40.95	$42.85	+$1.9	38% 1462-2368 (3830)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$28.91	$28.91	+$0	59% 3987-2766 (6753)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 45.1¢	$23.31	$23.26	-$0.05	56% 710-561 (1271)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 57¢	$99.39	$9.35	-$0.04	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$10.48	$8.68	+$0.34	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$126.35	$2.33	+$0.55	54% 2045-1764 (3809)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.25	+$0.05	43% 878-1159 (2037)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$1,495.61

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$31.96

Record

56%

3959-3128 (7087)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$218.5

Value

$228.66

PnL

+$10.16

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$133.17

Value

$132.94

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.95

Value

$42.85

PnL

+$1.9

Record

38%

1462-2368 (3830)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.91

Value

$28.91

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.31

Value

$23.26

PnL

-$0.05

Record

56%

710-561 (1271)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$99.39

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.48

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$0.34

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$126.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

2045-1764 (3809)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

878-1159 (2037)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.