Hawks vs. Bucks
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (44%) · Hawks at 74¢ · $952 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
9
Hawks 44%
$952.21
$2.8
73.4¢ → 73.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 74%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Hawksavg 73¢ | $379.71 | $382.31 | +$2.6 | 56% 3778-2937 (6715) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Bucksavg 27¢ | $167.79 | $164.68 | -$3.11 | 38% 1183-1919 (3102) |
SU suntori | Hawksavg 73.9¢ | $104.75 | $104.16 | -$0.59 | 46% 2939-3486 (6425) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 26¢ | $88.56 | $90.26 | +$1.7 | 37% 1155-1966 (3121) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Hawksavg 75¢ | $79.8 | $78.64 | -$1.16 | 34% 119-227 (346) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 25¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 26.5¢ | $51.82 | $51.84 | +$0.02 | 37% 1153-1939 (3092) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Hawksavg 73¢ | $21.9 | $22.05 | +$0.15 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Bucksavg 25.6¢ | $5.08 | $5.26 | +$0.18 | 57% 3591-2667 (6258) |
Invested
$379.71
Value
$382.31
PnL
+$2.6
Record
56%
3778-2937 (6715)
Invested
$167.79
Value
$164.68
PnL
-$3.11
Record
38%
1183-1919 (3102)
Invested
$104.75
Value
$104.16
PnL
-$0.59
Record
46%
2939-3486 (6425)
Invested
$88.56
Value
$90.26
PnL
+$1.7
Record
37%
1155-1966 (3121)
Invested
$79.8
Value
$78.64
PnL
-$1.16
Record
34%
119-227 (346)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$50
Value
$53
PnL
+$3
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$51.82
Value
$51.84
PnL
+$0.02
Record
37%
1153-1939 (3092)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
3591-2667 (6258)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.