Hawks vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 100%
$7.1K
-$392.27
55.2¢ → 50.5¢
-9% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 55.5¢ | $6.7K | $6.4K | -$390.05 | 54% 17516-14721 (32237) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 54.5¢ | $290.59 | $251.81 | -$7.08 | 58% 43654-31752 (75406) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Overavg 51¢ | $204 | $212 | +$8 | 51% 1598-1540 (3138) |
SE sentrio | Overavg 54¢ | $129.93 | $127.52 | -$2.41 | 50% 25016-24737 (49753) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 53.9¢ | $50.08 | $49.25 | -$0.82 | 57% 17377-12977 (30354) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $10.7 | -$0.1 | 56% 7475-5989 (13464) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $9.88 | $10.07 | +$0.19 | 58% 29915-21972 (51887) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.65 | +$0 | 53% 7654-6920 (14574) |
Invested
$6,666.3
Value
$6.4K
PnL
-$390.05
Record
54%
17516-14721 (32237)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290.59
Value
$251.81
PnL
-$7.08
Record
58%
43654-31752 (75406)
Invested
$204
Value
$212
PnL
+$8
Record
51%
1598-1540 (3138)
Invested
$129.93
Value
$127.52
PnL
-$2.41
Record
50%
25016-24737 (49753)
Invested
$50.08
Value
$49.25
PnL
-$0.82
Record
57%
17377-12977 (30354)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.7
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
7475-5989 (13464)
Invested
$9.88
Value
$10.07
PnL
+$0.19
Record
58%
29915-21972 (51887)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.65
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7654-6920 (14574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.