Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pacers, while the market favors Hawks (53%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (75%) · Pacers at 48¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
4
Pacers 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$45.48
47¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Hawks 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ComingBackCTR | Pacersavg 47¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$48.69 | 61% 3999-2513 (6512) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Hawksavg 51.4¢ | $783.43 | $745.69 | +$9.94 | 47% 13045-14637 (27682) |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 51.4¢ | $369.95 | $378 | +$8.91 | |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 47.4¢ | $367.27 | $367.69 | +$1.03 | |
FE ferdinand2 | Hawksavg 53¢ | $338.12 | $334.93 | -$3.19 | 51% 1008-970 (1978) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 47.8¢ | $55.96 | $55.91 | -$0.05 | 50% 25013-24733 (49746) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Pacersavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.38 | +$0.02 | 53% 7649-6917 (14566) |
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,577.32
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$48.69
Record
61%
3999-2513 (6512)
Invested
$783.43
Value
$745.69
PnL
+$9.94
Record
47%
13045-14637 (27682)
Both legs:
Invested
$338.12
Value
$334.93
PnL
-$3.19
Record
51%
1008-970 (1978)
Invested
$55.96
Value
$55.91
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
25013-24733 (49746)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
53%
7649-6917 (14566)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.