Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (53%) · Hawks at 91¢ · $31K held · ended Nov 3

Hawks91¢Pacers9¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.7K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 91¢

+39% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks91%

Pacers9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks9 traders

Total Value$26.9K

Total Shares32,758

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares13,152

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Hawks — 53%Pacers — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (15 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrPacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Hawksavg 63.3¢	$13.0K	$15.2K	+$2.1K	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
nigiri99	Hawksavg 68¢	$6.0K	$6.4K	+$440.35	46% 8110-9449 (17559)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Pacersavg 41¢	$3.6K	$2.7K	-$858.78	47% 2631-2934 (5565)
LI Limousin	Hawksavg 66.3¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$562.08	53% 508-458 (966)
PU purplegatto	Hawksavg 68¢	$635.62	$682.36	+$46.74	50% 6021-6114 (12135)
38 38791873984189	Hawksavg 67.7¢	$1.2K	$641.65	-$124	47% 13296-14825 (28121)
VE Venusian	Hawksavg 71¢	$481.38	$610.2	+$128.82	52% 495-455 (950)
LI LightParadox	Hawksavg 65.3¢	$535.56	$598.89	+$18.21	53% 520-452 (972)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pacersavg 41¢	$615	$405	-$172.5	58% 43802-31874 (75676)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawksavg 70¢	$280	$292	+$12	51% 1612-1552 (3164)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pacersavg 38.4¢	$280.32	$247.58	-$32.74	50% 25054-24766 (49820)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 38.4¢	$276.93	$194.47	-$35.65
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 69¢	$50.2	$53.11	+$2.91
RN1	Hawksavg 70¢	$175	$182.5	+$7.5	54% 58340-50554 (108894)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 36.4¢	$163.95	$143.37	-$20.58	51% 4306-4131 (8437)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 42¢	$210	$135	-$75	53% 5764-5105 (10869)
poshposhCTR<$100	Pacersavg 35.6¢	$50.9	$47.2	-$3.7	58% 11595-8431 (20026)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Pacersavg 36¢	$29.59	$26.19	-$3.4	46% 7396-8595 (15991)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Pacersavg 42.4¢	$31.66	$26.17	-$5.49	58% 29954-21993 (51947)
GH ghorrockCTR	Pacersavg 37.1¢	$106.67	$18.96	-$55.08	57% 17499-13064 (30563)

SunlineTicker

Hawks

Invested

$13,025.87

Value

$15.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

nigiri99

Hawks

Invested

$5,958.83

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$440.35

Record

46%

8110-9449 (17559)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Pacers

Invested

$3,590.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$858.78

Record

47%

2631-2934 (5565)

Limousin

Hawks

Invested

$1,795.85

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$562.08

Record

53%

508-458 (966)

purplegatto

Hawks

Invested

$635.62

Value

$682.36

PnL

+$46.74

Record

50%

6021-6114 (12135)

38791873984189

Hawks

Invested

$1,248.33

Value

$641.65

PnL

-$124

Record

47%

13296-14825 (28121)

Venusian

Hawks

Invested

$481.38

Value

$610.2

PnL

+$128.82

Record

52%

495-455 (950)

LightParadox

Hawks

Invested

$535.56

Value

$598.89

PnL

+$18.21

Record

53%

520-452 (972)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$615

Value

$405

PnL

-$172.5

Record

58%

43802-31874 (75676)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawks

Invested

$280

Value

$292

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

1612-1552 (3164)

sentrioARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$280.32

Value

$247.58

PnL

-$32.74

Record

50%

25054-24766 (49820)

Both legs:

Pacers$276.9338.4¢-$35.65

Hawks$50.269¢+$2.91

RN1

Hawks

Invested

$175

Value

$182.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

58340-50554 (108894)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$163.95

Value

$143.37

PnL

-$20.58

Record

51%

4306-4131 (8437)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$210

Value

$135

PnL

-$75

Record

53%

5764-5105 (10869)

poshposhCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$50.9

Value

$47.2

PnL

-$3.7

Record

58%

11595-8431 (20026)

dips.CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$29.59

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$3.4

Record

46%

7396-8595 (15991)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$31.66

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$5.49

Record

58%

29954-21993 (51947)

ghorrockCTR

Pacers

Invested

$106.67

Value

$18.96

PnL

-$55.08

Record

57%

17499-13064 (30563)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Pacers) and the top 1000 (15 on Hawks) disagree here.

whaleHawks 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrPacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Hawks 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.