Spread: Hawks (-2.5)

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (50%) · Hawks at 91¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 3

Hawks91¢Pacers9¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

65.9¢ → 91¢

+38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks91%

Pacers9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks8 traders

Total Value$31.1K

Total Shares35,010

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Pacers8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,474

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Hawks — 50%Pacers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Hawksavg 64.3¢	$20.2K	$23.5K	+$3.3K	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
AN Anon455	Hawksavg 71.5¢	$3.0K	$3.7K	+$706.81	55% 3195-2597 (5792)
LI LightParadox	Hawksavg 69¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$54.39	53% 520-452 (972)
38 38791873984189	Hawksavg 68.9¢	$1.5K	$871.99	-$136.96	47% 13296-14825 (28121)
FO forecastication4ARB<$100	Pacersavg 37¢	$1.3K	$843.33	-$497.11	50% 1254-1266 (2520)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 37¢	$2.2K	$505.84	-$565.35
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 73¢	$269.26	$337.5	+$68.24
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Pacersavg 37.8¢	$4.5K	$747.25	$-1.2K	47% 2631-2934 (5565)
poshposh	Hawksavg 70¢	$628.55	$656.62	+$28.07	58% 11595-8431 (20026)
LI Limousin	Hawksavg 69¢	$498.18	$541.5	+$25.27	53% 508-458 (966)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pacersavg 37.5¢	$750	$500	-$200	58% 43802-31874 (75676)
RN1	Hawksavg 71¢	$355	$375	+$20	54% 58340-50554 (108894)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawksavg 72¢	$288	$300	+$12	51% 1612-1552 (3164)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Pacersavg 32.9¢	$176.04	$133.75	-$28.91	51% 4306-4131 (8437)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Pacersavg 38¢	$190	$125	-$65	53% 5764-5105 (10869)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Pacersavg 36.7¢	$134.53	$121.49	-$13.05	50% 25054-24766 (49820)
└ Pacers leg	Pacersavg 36.7¢	$95.04	$64.73	-$16.07
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 71¢	$53.73	$56.76	+$3.03
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Pacersavg 38.9¢	$51.95	$38.25	-$13.7	58% 29954-21993 (51947)
GH ghorrockCTR	Pacersavg 31.9¢	$119.04	$25.07	-$62.81	57% 17499-13064 (30563)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Pacersavg 28¢	$32.94	$23.3	-$9.64	52% 495-455 (950)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Pacersavg 33¢	$5.18	$4.25	-$0.93	46% 8110-9449 (17559)

SunlineTicker

Hawks

Invested

$20,155.44

Value

$23.5K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

Anon455

Hawks

Invested

$2,981.23

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$706.81

Record

55%

3195-2597 (5792)

LightParadox

Hawks

Invested

$1,072.26

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$54.39

Record

53%

520-452 (972)

38791873984189

Hawks

Invested

$1,525.3

Value

$871.99

PnL

-$136.96

Record

47%

13296-14825 (28121)

forecastication4ARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$1,340.44

Value

$843.33

PnL

-$497.11

Record

50%

1254-1266 (2520)

Both legs:

Pacers$2,201.8737¢-$565.35

Hawks$269.2673¢+$68.24

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Pacers

Invested

$4,540

Value

$747.25

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

47%

2631-2934 (5565)

poshposh

Hawks

Invested

$628.55

Value

$656.62

PnL

+$28.07

Record

58%

11595-8431 (20026)

Limousin

Hawks

Invested

$498.18

Value

$541.5

PnL

+$25.27

Record

53%

508-458 (966)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pacers

Invested

$750

Value

$500

PnL

-$200

Record

58%

43802-31874 (75676)

RN1

Hawks

Invested

$355

Value

$375

PnL

+$20

Record

54%

58340-50554 (108894)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawks

Invested

$288

Value

$300

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

1612-1552 (3164)

6512395314597884CTR

Pacers

Invested

$176.04

Value

$133.75

PnL

-$28.91

Record

51%

4306-4131 (8437)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Pacers

Invested

$190

Value

$125

PnL

-$65

Record

53%

5764-5105 (10869)

sentrioARB<$100

Pacers

Invested

$134.53

Value

$121.49

PnL

-$13.05

Record

50%

25054-24766 (49820)

Both legs:

Pacers$95.0436.7¢-$16.07

Hawks$53.7371¢+$3.03

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$51.95

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$13.7

Record

58%

29954-21993 (51947)

ghorrockCTR

Pacers

Invested

$119.04

Value

$25.07

PnL

-$62.81

Record

57%

17499-13064 (30563)

VenusianCTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$32.94

Value

$23.3

PnL

-$9.64

Record

52%

495-455 (950)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Pacers

Invested

$5.18

Value

$4.25

PnL

-$0.93

Record

46%

8110-9449 (17559)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

8 of 16 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrPacers 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedPacers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Pacers 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.