Hawks vs. Pacers
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (20%) · Hawks at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Hawks
5
Hawks 20%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$1.58
Research grade
AvoidHawks at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Hawksavg 64¢ | $584.1 | $584.1 | +$4.56 | 54% 404-347 (751) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Pacersavg 35.9¢ | $515.15 | $512.63 | -$2.52 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
| └ Pacers leg | Pacersavg 35.9¢ | $351.29 | $347.48 | -$3.8 | |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 64¢ | $163.86 | $165.14 | +$1.28 | |
 nigiri99CTR | Pacersavg 36¢ | $153.72 | $151.59 | -$2.14 | 46% 7287-8587 (15874) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 36¢ | $72 | $71 | -$1 | 50% 3925-3907 (7832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 35.3¢ | $11.4 | $6.28 | +$0.13 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Pacersavg 35¢ | $1.88 | $1.9 | +$0.03 | 50% 34697-34162 (68859) |
Invested
$584.1
Value
$584.1
PnL
+$4.56
Record
54%
404-347 (751)
Invested
$515.15
Value
$512.63
PnL
-$2.52
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
Both legs:
nigiri99CTRInvested
$153.72
Value
$151.59
PnL
-$2.14
Record
46%
7287-8587 (15874)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$72
Value
$71
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
3925-3907 (7832)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$6.28
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$1.9
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
34697-34162 (68859)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.