Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 242.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 81¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 71%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$35.44
76.4¢ → 81¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 81%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 90.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$116.69 | — |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 40.4¢ | $548.24 | $467.72 | -$80.53 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
LU luckycat888888 | Underavg 51¢ | $304.59 | $403.14 | +$98.55 | 50% 17-17 (34) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 53¢ | $144.07 | $203.87 | +$59.8 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Underavg 54.8¢ | $62.35 | $85.27 | +$22.92 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $40.54 | $43.94 | +$3.4 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 61¢ | $20.74 | $22.27 | +$1.53 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 31.5¢ | $19.8 | $21.67 | +$1.87 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $49.35 | $26.25 | -$23.1 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $7.65 | $11.25 | +$3.6 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
Invested
$1,662.86
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$116.69
Record
—
Invested
$548.24
Value
$467.72
PnL
-$80.53
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$304.59
Value
$403.14
PnL
+$98.55
Record
50%
17-17 (34)
Invested
$144.07
Value
$203.87
PnL
+$59.8
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$62.35
Value
$85.27
PnL
+$22.92
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$40.54
Value
$43.94
PnL
+$3.4
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.35
Value
$26.25
PnL
-$23.1
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
Invested
$7.65
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$3.6
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.