Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 238.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 29¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 33%
1 arb excluded
$6.0K
-$352.18
48.1¢ → 29¢
-40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$0.72 | 54% 16556-13890 (30446) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $1.2K | $1.6K | +$371.22 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.8¢ | $939.38 | $567.44 | -$371.94 | |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 48.1¢ | $2.0K | $1.3K | -$644.26 | 54% 3614-3134 (6748) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 73.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$17.82 | — |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Underavg 49.9¢ | $744.44 | $967.12 | +$222.68 | 48% 413-442 (855) |
JU justaluckydude | Underavg 46.5¢ | $98.54 | $143.1 | +$44.56 | 54% 10277-8909 (19186) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $24.04 | $32.4 | +$8.36 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $3.71 | $2.36 | -$1.34 | 57% 12546-9489 (22035) |
Invested
$2,184.78
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$0.72
Record
54%
16556-13890 (30446)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,982.37
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$644.26
Record
54%
3614-3134 (6748)
Invested
$1,280.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$17.82
Record
—
Invested
$744.44
Value
$967.12
PnL
+$222.68
Record
48%
413-442 (855)
Invested
$98.54
Value
$143.1
PnL
+$44.56
Record
54%
10277-8909 (19186)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.04
Value
$32.4
PnL
+$8.36
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Invested
$3.71
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$1.34
Record
57%
12546-9489 (22035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.