Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Hawks vs. Rockets: O/U 236.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 42¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$118.86

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 41.5¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,579

Combined PnL-$151.36

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,317

Combined PnL+$32.49

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 52.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$262.68	—
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.7¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$358.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.3¢	$625.02	$529.21	-$95.81
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 57¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$121.98	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.6¢	$818.82	$837.76	+$18.94	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 44.4¢	$300.75	$311.93	+$11.18	48% 413-442 (855)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 48.1¢	$148.52	$109.7	-$38.83	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$14.85	$24.3	+$9.45	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$13.52	$15.89	+$2.37	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,160.47

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$262.68

Record

—

Both legs:

Over$1,535.4652.7¢+$358.49

Under$625.0241.3¢-$95.81

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$1,267.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$121.98

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$818.82

Value

$837.76

PnL

+$18.94

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$300.75

Value

$311.93

PnL

+$11.18

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$148.52

Value

$109.7

PnL

-$38.83

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.85

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$9.45

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$13.52

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$2.37

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.