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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Hawks — but Rockets won instead.

Spread: Rockets (-8.5)

Resolved Rockets. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Hawks. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Hawks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets100%

Hawks0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,233

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Hawks6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,879

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Rockets — 40%Hawks — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Rocketsavg 44.6¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$1.7K	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Hawksavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$241.95	51% 12449-11898 (24347)
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 43.3¢	$839.2	$1.9K	+$1.1K
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 49¢	$855.51	—	-$855.53
TA takeormakeCTR	Hawksavg 39.6¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
GA gagarin59CTR	Hawksavg 51¢	$3.0K	—	$-1.5K	53% 598-534 (1132)
AN Anon455CTR	Hawksavg 67.9¢	$1.1K	—	-$730.25	56% 2440-1906 (4346)
HRTrading<$100	Rocketsavg 89¢	$52.41	$55	+$2.59	54% 2345-1973 (4318)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$45	$45	+$22.05	48% 414-442 (856)
GH ghorrock<$100	Rocketsavg 69¢	$10.35	$15	+$4.65	57% 12548-9494 (22042)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Hawksavg 62¢	$12.33	—	-$13.95	57% 27306-20190 (47496)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Hawksavg 54¢	—	—	+$0	54% 16560-13892 (30452)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Hawksavg 61¢	—	—	+$0	62% 3934-2398 (6332)

Invested

$3,117.81

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$1,694.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$241.95

Record

51%

12449-11898 (24347)

Both legs:

Rockets$839.243.3¢+$1.1K

Hawks$855.5149¢-$855.53

Invested

$2,144.06

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Invested

$2,998.67

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

598-534 (1132)

Invested

$1,075

Value

—

PnL

-$730.25

Record

56%

2440-1906 (4346)

Invested

$52.41

Value

$55

PnL

+$2.59

Record

54%

2345-1973 (4318)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$45

PnL

+$22.05

Record

48%

414-442 (856)

Invested

$10.35

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.65

Record

57%

12548-9494 (22042)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

—

PnL

-$13.95

Record

57%

27306-20190 (47496)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

16560-13892 (30452)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

3934-2398 (6332)

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x72b666ed...efebf2

Slug

nba-atl-hou-2026-10-26-spread-home-8pt5

Traders in this Market

justaluckydude

Rockets — $3.1K

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

takeormake

Hawks — $0

gagarin59

Hawks — $0

Anon455

Hawks — $0

HRTrading

Rockets — $55

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Rockets — $45

ghorrock

Rockets — $15

LeLynxMalynx

Hawks — $0

HomeRunHazard

Hawks — $0

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