Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Rockets (65%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-2.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (40%) · Hawks at 36¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27

Rockets65¢Hawks35¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

-$24.24

Smart Money Entry

49.5¢ → 35.5¢

-28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets65%

Hawks36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks4 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares8,733

Combined PnL+$83.2

Rockets6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,266

Combined PnL-$107.44

Hawks — 40%Rockets — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hawksavg 50.3¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$96.22	54% 16556-13890 (30446)
JU justaluckydude	Rocketsavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$109.48	54% 10277-8909 (19186)
LU luckycat888888CTR	Hawksavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$78.15	50% 17-17 (34)
TA takeormake	Rocketsavg 52.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$55.31	54% 3614-3134 (6748)
AN Anon455	Rocketsavg 55.9¢	$582.62	$527.01	-$55.61	56% 2435-1897 (4332)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hawksavg 31.6¢	$321.98	$428.5	+$106.52	—
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 57¢	$185.09	$188.34	+$3.25	58% 39876-28789 (68665)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Rocketsavg 51¢	$106.22	$111.82	+$5.59	48% 413-442 (855)
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 44¢	$49.2	$55.91	+$6.71
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 51¢	$57.02	$55.91	-$1.12
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Rocketsavg 58¢	$33.49	$33.67	+$0.18	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTrading<$100	Rocketsavg 44¢	$31.9	$30.81	-$1.09	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hawksavg 38.5¢	$11.55	$6.3	-$5.25	57% 12546-9489 (22035)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hawks

Invested

$3,452.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$96.22

Record

54%

16556-13890 (30446)

justaluckydude

Rockets

Invested

$1,557.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$109.48

Record

54%

10277-8909 (19186)

luckycat888888CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,250.39

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$78.15

Record

50%

17-17 (34)

takeormake

Rockets

Invested

$1,062.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$55.31

Record

54%

3614-3134 (6748)

Anon455

Rockets

Invested

$582.62

Value

$527.01

PnL

-$55.61

Record

56%

2435-1897 (4332)

FlaznorpCTR

Hawks

Invested

$321.98

Value

$428.5

PnL

+$106.52

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$185.09

Value

$188.34

PnL

+$3.25

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$106.22

Value

$111.82

PnL

+$5.59

Record

48%

413-442 (855)

Both legs:

Hawks$49.244¢+$6.71

Rockets$57.0251¢-$1.12

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Rockets

Invested

$33.49

Value

$33.67

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTrading<$100

Rockets

Invested

$31.9

Value

$30.81

PnL

-$1.09

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$11.55

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$5.25

Record

57%

12546-9489 (22035)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 36%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.