Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ty Jerome win the 2026-27 NBA Most Improved Player?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 33¢ · $72 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$72.46
-$11.08
Research grade
AvoidYes at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP SPLPBCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $35.44 | $31.11 | -$4.32 | 23% 511-1693 (2204) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.8¢ | $25.1 | $21.41 | -$3.69 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $23 | $19.93 | -$3.07 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.