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CoinTrick<$100NoYes
LornaPredictsCTR<$100YesYes
PippiTraderCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 30?
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$26.67
Combined PnL
-$193.83
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$25.99
Total Shares26
Combined PnL+$0.03
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0.68
Total Shares8,104
Combined PnL-$193.85
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CoinTrick<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.96 | $25.99 | +$0.03 | 97% 3234-83 (3317) |
YE yesasdgfaskdfhaskCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $434.52 | $0.68 | -$147.54 | 46% 45-53 (98) |
LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $21 | — | -$21 | 18% 535-2427 (2962) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $1.8K | — | -$23.99 | 43% 174-231 (405) |
PippiTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $2.57 | — | -$1.32 | 59% 273-188 (461) |
CoinTrick<$100Invested
$25.96
Value
$25.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
97%
3234-83 (3317)
YE
yesasdgfaskdfhaskCTRInvested
$434.52
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$147.54
Record
46%
45-53 (98)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$21
Value
—
PnL
-$21
Record
18%
535-2427 (2962)
19
196874353278CTRInvested
$1,807.66
Value
—
PnL
-$23.99
Record
43%
174-231 (405)
PippiTraderCTR<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
59%
273-188 (461)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x1ca45a8a...d2984d
Slug
msft-close-above-530-on-october-30-2026