Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-11-01?

15 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $47K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$46.9K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 25 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes15 traders

Total Value$30.2K

Total Shares36,870

Combined PnL+$4.1K

No10 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares37,877

Combined PnL-$890.83

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 73.3¢	$8.5K	$9.3K	+$857.11	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
us391CTR	Noavg 48¢	$6.2K	$6.4K	+$195.52	51% 1713-1675 (3388)
TH theowalcottCTR	Noavg 44.8¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$91.26	49% 110-116 (226)
PL pltrkr111	Yesavg 54¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$46.3	54% 733-618 (1351)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 73.9¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$594.51	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 77.3¢	$2.6K	$3.1K	+$584.49	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 50¢	$1.5K	$2.8K	+$1.3K	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 63.4¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$711.24	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 20.2¢	$2.8K	$1.7K	$-1.1K	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$20.36	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.85
└ No leg	Noavg 43¢	$382.06	$404.27	+$22.21
CA Cannae	Yesavg 52.9¢	$760.54	$731.03	-$29.51	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 52¢	$785.1	$730.89	-$21.51	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
AY ay118CTR	Noavg 47¢	$706.06	$713.57	+$7.51	47% 36-41 (77)
HI hi774c	Yesavg 55¢	$669.85	$663.76	-$6.09	51% 4818-4541 (9359)
QSQL	Yesavg 99.9¢	$334.5	$334.66	+$0.17	57% 13-10 (23)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 54.4¢	$253.26	$253.85	+$0.59	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
KI kip3366CTR	Noavg 49¢	$173.16	$174.93	+$1.77	46% 45-52 (97)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 78.4¢	$137.6	$170.97	+$33.37	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 91.6¢	$138.11	$146.3	+$8.19	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 48¢	$74.87	$52.25	-$22.62	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 20.2¢	$54.19	$51.78	-$2.41	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 61.6¢	$28.81	$31.09	+$2.28	63% 1209-696 (1905)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$47.96	$16.21	-$31.75	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 14.2¢	$7.43	$7.57	+$0.14	51% 6082-5802 (11884)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.73	-$0.02	52% 7507-6801 (14308)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$8,487.57

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$857.11

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

us391CTR

Invested

$6,172.77

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$195.52

Record

51%

1713-1675 (3388)

theowalcottCTR

Invested

$5,985.5

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$91.26

Record

49%

110-116 (226)

pltrkr111

Yes

Invested

$4,999.96

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$46.3

Record

54%

733-618 (1351)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$3,564.66

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$594.51

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$2,552.26

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$584.49

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$1,458.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$1,989.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$711.24

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$2,827.85

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,469.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$20.36

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

Both legs:

Yes$1,087.4954.6¢-$1.85

No$382.0643¢+$22.21

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$760.54

Value

$731.03

PnL

-$29.51

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$785.1

Value

$730.89

PnL

-$21.51

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

ay118CTR

Invested

$706.06

Value

$713.57

PnL

+$7.51

Record

47%

36-41 (77)

hi774c

Yes

Invested

$669.85

Value

$663.76

PnL

-$6.09

Record

51%

4818-4541 (9359)

QSQL

Yes

Invested

$334.5

Value

$334.66

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$253.26

Value

$253.85

PnL

+$0.59

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

kip3366CTR

Invested

$173.16

Value

$174.93

PnL

+$1.77

Record

46%

45-52 (97)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$137.6

Value

$170.97

PnL

+$33.37

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$138.11

Value

$146.3

PnL

+$8.19

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$74.87

Value

$52.25

PnL

-$22.62

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$54.19

Value

$51.78

PnL

-$2.41

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.81

Value

$31.09

PnL

+$2.28

Record

63%

1209-696 (1905)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$47.96

Value

$16.21

PnL

-$31.75

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$7.43

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

6082-5802 (11884)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

15 of 25 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.