Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 63¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1

Over38¢Under62¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$69.88

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 62.5¢

+21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,792

Combined PnL-$96.52

Over3 traders

Total Value$206.41

Total Shares448

Combined PnL+$26.65

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 60¢	$3.2K	$2.8K	-$402.73	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$23.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$425.73
TO torta.tech	Underavg 49.4¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$20.17	62% 8225-4939 (13164)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$326.95	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.1K	$903.11	-$208.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.7¢	$774.85	$656.78	-$118.07
0xheavy888	Underavg 76¢	$152	$151	-$1	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 51.3¢	$153.37	$130.29	-$23.08	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$78.91	$83.88	+$4.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 73¢	$74.46	$46.41	-$28.05
VeryLucky888	Underavg 76¢	$171	$112.5	-$58.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$81	$79.68	-$1.32	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 30.8¢	$56.76	$76.23	+$19.47	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$42	$50.5	+$8.5	58% 2242-1654 (3896)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 58¢	$64.11	$48.55	-$15.55	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 77¢	$3.85	$2.5	-$1.35	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.12	$1.17	+$0.05	53% 5677-5082 (10759)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,195.19

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$402.73

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

Over$1,433.5353.6¢+$23.01

Under$1,761.6660¢-$425.73

torta.tech

Under

Invested

$2,597.47

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$20.17

Record

62%

8225-4939 (13164)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,886.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$326.95

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Over$1,111.9953.6¢-$208.88

Under$774.8566.7¢-$118.07

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$152

Value

$151

PnL

-$1

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$153.37

Value

$130.29

PnL

-$23.08

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Both legs:

Over$78.9151.3¢+$4.97

Under$74.4673¢-$28.05

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$171

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$58.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81

Value

$79.68

PnL

-$1.32

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.76

Value

$76.23

PnL

+$19.47

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42

Value

$50.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

58%

2242-1654 (3896)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$64.11

Value

$48.55

PnL

-$15.55

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.35

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.17

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.