Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 56¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$2.33

Smart Money Entry

56.5¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,047

Combined PnL+$3.38

Under8 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,186

Combined PnL-$5.71

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 43.5¢	$9.0K	$3.9K	+$3.38	50% 19424-19795 (39219)
FO forecastication4	Underavg 56¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$20.19	49% 1197-1224 (2421)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 57.8¢	$653.15	$632.8	-$20.35	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Underavg 56¢	$560	$560	+$0	47% 2571-2857 (5428)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 58.6¢	$260.18	$257.35	-$2.83	72% 6826-2619 (9445)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 56.5¢	$226	$224	-$2	54% 4939-4170 (9109)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$72.96	$72.24	-$0.72	57% 29212-21600 (50812)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 58¢	$14.21	$13.72	+$0.12	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 59¢	$2.95	$2.8	-$0.13	52% 7485-6781 (14266)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$9,047.41

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$3.38

Record

50%

19424-19795 (39219)

forecastication4

Under

Invested

$2,261.17

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$20.19

Record

49%

1197-1224 (2421)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$653.15

Value

$632.8

PnL

-$20.35

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Under

Invested

$560

Value

$560

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2571-2857 (5428)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$260.18

Value

$257.35

PnL

-$2.83

Record

72%

6826-2619 (9445)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$226

Value

$224

PnL

-$2

Record

54%

4939-4170 (9109)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$72.96

Value

$72.24

PnL

-$0.72

Record

57%

29212-21600 (50812)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$14.21

Value

$13.72

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.95

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

52%

7485-6781 (14266)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.