Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC end in a draw?
11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 85%
$1.8K
-$40.66
81.6¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 76.9¢ | $717.35 | $646.91 | -$70.45 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 78¢ | $352.04 | $336.25 | -$15.8 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 84.2¢ | $195.07 | $231.51 | +$36.44 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $151.99 | $146.82 | -$5.17 | 52% 13935-12713 (26648) |
PA pauleta23 | Noavg 84.6¢ | $118.69 | $140.23 | +$21.54 | 66% 23472-11826 (35298) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $87.93 | $93.28 | +$5.35 | 58% 2242-1654 (3896) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $61.99 | $60 | -$1.99 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $40.62 | $45.44 | +$4.81 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $50.93 | $42.02 | -$8.91 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $24.97 | $19.3 | -$5.67 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $18.23 | $17 | -$1.23 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.57 | $7.79 | +$0.22 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $2 | +$0.2 | 51% 6082-5802 (11884) |
Invested
$717.35
Value
$646.91
PnL
-$70.45
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$352.04
Value
$336.25
PnL
-$15.8
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Invested
$195.07
Value
$231.51
PnL
+$36.44
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Invested
$151.99
Value
$146.82
PnL
-$5.17
Record
52%
13935-12713 (26648)
Invested
$118.69
Value
$140.23
PnL
+$21.54
Record
66%
23472-11826 (35298)
Invested
$87.93
Value
$93.28
PnL
+$5.35
Record
58%
2242-1654 (3896)
Invested
$61.99
Value
$60
PnL
-$1.99
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
Invested
$40.62
Value
$45.44
PnL
+$4.81
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$50.93
Value
$42.02
PnL
-$8.91
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$24.97
Value
$19.3
PnL
-$5.67
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.23
Value
$17
PnL
-$1.23
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$7.57
Value
$7.79
PnL
+$0.22
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
51%
6082-5802 (11884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
No — $646.91
AnonymousUsername
No — $336.25
GoalLineGhost
No — $231.51
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
No — $146.82
pauleta23
No — $140.23
NordhavenCap
No — $93.28
LuckyLoo
No — $60
SnakeBall
No — $45.44
topdogbigboi
No — $42.02
foooool
CTRYes — $19.3