Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$187.53
33.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $343.53 | $421.85 | +$78.32 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Noavg 42.7¢ | $423.98 | $322.01 | -$101.97 | 50% 11182-10999 (22181) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 73.5¢ | $199.13 | $216.76 | +$17.63 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42.7¢ | $224.84 | $105.25 | -$119.6 | |
NO NordhavenCap | Yesavg 51.4¢ | $132.11 | $205.6 | +$73.49 | 58% 2242-1654 (3896) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 61.3¢ | $54.34 | $73.95 | +$19.61 | 50% 33888-33462 (67350) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $12.96 | $21.06 | +$8.1 | 72% 6833-2629 (9462) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $12.95 | $20.47 | +$7.52 | 49% 13032-13607 (26639) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 62.3¢ | $10.27 | $10.75 | +$0.48 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $0.55 | $0.55 | +$0 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$343.53
Value
$421.85
PnL
+$78.32
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$423.98
Value
$322.01
PnL
-$101.97
Record
50%
11182-10999 (22181)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.11
Value
$205.6
PnL
+$73.49
Record
58%
2242-1654 (3896)
Invested
$54.34
Value
$73.95
PnL
+$19.61
Record
50%
33888-33462 (67350)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$21.06
PnL
+$8.1
Record
72%
6833-2629 (9462)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$7.52
Record
49%
13032-13607 (26639)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.27
Value
$10.75
PnL
+$0.48
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.