Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 6.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$130.19

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 87.6¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,111

Combined PnL-$148.92

Over3 traders

Total Value$49.54

Total Shares595

Combined PnL+$18.74

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 92.4¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$46.22	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 93.8¢	$868.19	$899.05	+$30.85	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 90¢	$266.67	$151.11	-$115.56	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 5.7¢	$3.99	$34.3	+$30.31	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 91¢	$40.95	$22.95	-$18	58% 28182-20778 (48960)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 5.2¢	$25.64	$14.37	-$11.27	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 3.9¢	$1.17	$0.87	-$0.3	53% 3387-3055 (6442)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,704.2

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$46.22

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$868.19

Value

$899.05

PnL

+$30.85

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$266.67

Value

$151.11

PnL

-$115.56

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.99

Value

$34.3

PnL

+$30.31

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$40.95

Value

$22.95

PnL

-$18

Record

58%

28182-20778 (48960)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.64

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$11.27

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.17

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.