Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 5.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 64¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$115.92
83.8¢ → 64¢
-24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 86.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$21.49 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 73.8¢ | $310.71 | $237.81 | -$72.9 | 50% 24584-24250 (48834) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Overavg 35.8¢ | $131.69 | $112.33 | -$19.36 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35.8¢ | $101.14 | $70.67 | -$30.47 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $30.56 | $41.67 | +$11.11 | |
FO fooooolCTR | Overavg 11.5¢ | $100.77 | $109.75 | +$8.98 | 50% 10665-10524 (21189) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 82¢ | $164 | $100 | -$64 | 56% 6940-5557 (12497) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $26.72 | $22.9 | -$3.82 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $11.07 | $6.75 | -$4.32 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $4.88 | $2.94 | -$1.94 | 58% 41030-29693 (70723) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $1.48 | $2.07 | +$0.59 | 67% 23153-11555 (34708) |
Invested
$1,385.89
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$21.49
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$310.71
Value
$237.81
PnL
-$72.9
Record
50%
24584-24250 (48834)
Invested
$131.69
Value
$112.33
PnL
-$19.36
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.77
Value
$109.75
PnL
+$8.98
Record
50%
10665-10524 (21189)
0xheavy888Invested
$164
Value
$100
PnL
-$64
Record
56%
6940-5557 (12497)
Invested
$26.72
Value
$22.9
PnL
-$3.82
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$11.07
Value
$6.75
PnL
-$4.32
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$4.88
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$1.94
Record
58%
41030-29693 (70723)
Invested
$1.48
Value
$2.07
PnL
+$0.59
Record
67%
23153-11555 (34708)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.