Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$306.94

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,694

Combined PnL-$175.87

Over3 traders

Total Value$337.03

Total Shares1,371

Combined PnL-$131.07

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 61.7¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$175.94	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$246.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.7¢	$189.1	$260.08	+$70.98
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 65.7¢	$561.27	$644.91	-$78.65	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 34.5¢	$379.01	$252.56	-$126.45	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 69.4¢	$337.23	$247.77	-$89.45	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 67¢	$133.99	$131	-$3	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 60.5¢	$48.41	$48.23	-$0.18	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$50.57	$44.97	-$5.61	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$38.51	$39.5	+$0.99	67% 23153-11555 (34708)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26	$24.75	-$1.25	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 56.7¢	$24.58	$21.24	-$3.34	59% 9529-6541 (16070)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,436.32

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$175.94

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

Both legs:

Under$1,247.2261.7¢-$246.92

Over$189.136.7¢+$70.98

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$561.27

Value

$644.91

PnL

-$78.65

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$379.01

Value

$252.56

PnL

-$126.45

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$337.23

Value

$247.77

PnL

-$89.45

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$133.99

Value

$131

PnL

-$3

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.41

Value

$48.23

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$50.57

Value

$44.97

PnL

-$5.61

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$38.51

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$0.99

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.58

Value

$21.24

PnL

-$3.34

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.