Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$339.44

Smart Money Entry

47.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,850

Combined PnL-$57.74

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,941

Combined PnL-$281.7

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA Jackenxand	Overavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	97% 2571-88 (2659)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 46.3¢	$836.64	$696.26	-$140.38	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 55.8¢	$320.95	$333.39	+$12.44	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$424.12	$315.25	-$108.87	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 45.9¢	$177.16	$161.98	-$15.18	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
FO foooool	Overavg 53.7¢	$172.62	$143.04	-$29.58	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
SA Saber-greed	Overavg 52¢	$135.59	$130.38	+$6.52	59% 2541-1761 (4302)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 46¢	$161	$113.75	-$47.25	51% 1330-1269 (2599)
poshposh	Overavg 83.3¢	$107.78	$75.02	-$32.76	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 33.1¢	$40.47	$51.38	+$10.91	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$14.36	$21	+$6.64	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 79¢	$4.74	$6	+$1.26	60% 3263-2193 (5456)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 89¢	$8.9	$5.8	-$3.1	64% 1037-588 (1625)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 47¢	$3.11	$2.97	-$0.13	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 54¢	$1.71	$1.77	+$0.06	67% 23153-11555 (34708)

Jackenxand

Over

Invested

$1,101.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

97%

2571-88 (2659)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$836.64

Value

$696.26

PnL

-$140.38

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$320.95

Value

$333.39

PnL

+$12.44

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$424.12

Value

$315.25

PnL

-$108.87

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$177.16

Value

$161.98

PnL

-$15.18

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

foooool

Over

Invested

$172.62

Value

$143.04

PnL

-$29.58

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

Saber-greed

Over

Invested

$135.59

Value

$130.38

PnL

+$6.52

Record

59%

2541-1761 (4302)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$161

Value

$113.75

PnL

-$47.25

Record

51%

1330-1269 (2599)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$107.78

Value

$75.02

PnL

-$32.76

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40.47

Value

$51.38

PnL

+$10.91

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.36

Value

$21

PnL

+$6.64

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$4.74

Value

PnL

+$1.26

Record

60%

3263-2193 (5456)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$8.9

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$3.1

Record

64%

1037-588 (1625)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$3.11

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.06

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.