Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 2.5

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (59%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 59%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$259.96

Smart Money Entry

16.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$625.96

Total Shares2,270

Combined PnL+$254.8

Over7 traders

Total Value$428.67

Total Shares466

Combined PnL+$5.16

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 25¢	$124.06	$245.64	+$121.58	53% 15797-13980 (29777)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 20¢	$140.42	$161.13	+$20.72	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
FO foooool	Overavg 74.8¢	$122.3	$147.79	+$25.49	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 69.4¢	$159.47	$139.4	-$20.06	50% 24584-24250 (48834)
SY SyrrokCTR	Underavg 2¢	$11	$101.75	+$90.75	61% 1788-1130 (2918)
FO forrestgumper<$100	Overavg 84¢	$58.51	$56.76	-$1.74	48% 601-652 (1253)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 18.4¢	$45.56	$42	-$3.56	49% 12313-12578 (24891)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 84¢	$42	$40.75	-$1.25	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 85¢	$26.13	$29.14	+$3.01	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 19.5¢	$26.61	$28.01	+$1.39	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$8.54	$16.26	+$7.72	49% 18756-19165 (37921)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 83¢	$14.25	$13.99	-$0.26	55% 8132-6565 (14697)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$4.93	$10.6	+$5.68	52% 5912-5565 (11477)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$5	$9.9	+$4.9	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1	$9.25	+$8.25	67% 23153-11555 (34708)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$4.05	$1.43	-$2.63	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 75¢	$0.86	$0.83	-$0.02	57% 2083-1561 (3644)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$124.06

Value

$245.64

PnL

+$121.58

Record

53%

15797-13980 (29777)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$140.42

Value

$161.13

PnL

+$20.72

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

foooool

Over

Invested

$122.3

Value

$147.79

PnL

+$25.49

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$159.47

Value

$139.4

PnL

-$20.06

Record

50%

24584-24250 (48834)

SyrrokCTR

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$101.75

PnL

+$90.75

Record

61%

1788-1130 (2918)

forrestgumper<$100

Over

Invested

$58.51

Value

$56.76

PnL

-$1.74

Record

48%

601-652 (1253)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.56

Value

$42

PnL

-$3.56

Record

49%

12313-12578 (24891)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$42

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$26.13

Value

$29.14

PnL

+$3.01

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.61

Value

$28.01

PnL

+$1.39

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.54

Value

$16.26

PnL

+$7.72

Record

49%

18756-19165 (37921)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$14.25

Value

$13.99

PnL

-$0.26

Record

55%

8132-6565 (14697)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.93

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$5.68

Record

52%

5912-5565 (11477)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$4.9

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$9.25

PnL

+$8.25

Record

67%

23153-11555 (34708)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.05

Value

$1.43

PnL

-$2.63

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.83

PnL

-$0.02

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.