Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-3.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego FC (71%) · San Diego FC at 52¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
San Diego FC
7
San Diego FC 71%
$4.9K
-$348.52
85.6¢ → 52¢
-39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSan Diego FC at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | San Diego FCavg 86.9¢ | $4.1K | $3.7K | -$324.1 | 50% 24584-24250 (48834) |
 poshposh | San Diego FCavg 78.8¢ | $597.32 | $513.32 | -$84 | 59% 9529-6541 (16070) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 13¢ | $241.17 | $278.28 | +$37.1 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
SN SnakeBall | San Diego FCavg 84¢ | $221.76 | $223.08 | +$1.32 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 11.9¢ | $61.94 | $74.27 | +$12.33 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
FO foooool<$100 | San Diego FCavg 89¢ | $35.52 | $33.92 | -$1.6 | 50% 10665-10524 (21189) |
 HRTrading<$100 | San Diego FCavg 40.4¢ | $20.63 | $31.06 | +$10.43 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
Invested
$4,062.21
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$324.1
Record
50%
24584-24250 (48834)
poshposhInvested
$597.32
Value
$513.32
PnL
-$84
Record
59%
9529-6541 (16070)
Invested
$241.17
Value
$278.28
PnL
+$37.1
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
Invested
$221.76
Value
$223.08
PnL
+$1.32
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
Invested
$61.94
Value
$74.27
PnL
+$12.33
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$35.52
Value
$33.92
PnL
-$1.6
Record
50%
10665-10524 (21189)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$20.63
Value
$31.06
PnL
+$10.43
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.