Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Vancouver Whitecaps FC (100%) · Vancouver Whitecaps FC at 94¢ · $816 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Vancouver Whitecaps FC
4
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 100%
1 arb excluded
$815.61
$15.18
30.2¢ → 94.2¢
+212% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVancouver Whitecaps FC at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | San Diego FCavg 73.6¢ | $1.1K | $679.23 | -$454.83 | 50% 24584-24250 (48834) |
| └ Vancouver Whitecaps FC leg | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 78.2¢ | $492.65 | $500.62 | +$7.97 | |
| └ San Diego FC leg | San Diego FCavg 73.6¢ | $641.41 | $178.61 | -$462.8 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 23¢ | $56.81 | $71.63 | +$14.82 | 59% 44933-31331 (76264) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 46¢ | $51.11 | $52.22 | +$1.11 | 50% 32969-32506 (65475) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 27¢ | $6.21 | $6.67 | +$0.46 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Vancouver Whitecaps FCavg 35¢ | $7.07 | $5.86 | -$1.21 | 57% 2083-1561 (3644) |
Invested
$1,134.06
Value
$679.23
PnL
-$454.83
Record
50%
24584-24250 (48834)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.81
Value
$71.63
PnL
+$14.82
Record
59%
44933-31331 (76264)
Invested
$51.11
Value
$52.22
PnL
+$1.11
Record
50%
32969-32506 (65475)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.21
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0.46
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
Invested
$7.07
Value
$5.86
PnL
-$1.21
Record
57%
2083-1561 (3644)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.