Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$8.4K
-$52.32
99.8¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NE Next-Licensing | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.4K | $8.4K | -$33.6 | 99% 2178-28 (2206) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16.78 | $18.27 | +$1.49 | 52% 13603-12436 (26039) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $17.7 | -$0.5 | 57% 2083-1561 (3644) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $11.74 | $11.61 | -$0.13 | 67% 23153-11555 (34708) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $27.37 | $7.68 | -$19.69 | 53% 3387-3055 (6442) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $1.02 | $1.11 | +$0.09 | 53% 15797-13980 (29777) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.65 | $0.68 | +$0.03 | 49% 12313-12578 (24891) |
Invested
$8,391.6
Value
$8.4K
PnL
-$33.6
Record
99%
2178-28 (2206)
Invested
$16.78
Value
$18.27
PnL
+$1.49
Record
52%
13603-12436 (26039)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$17.7
PnL
-$0.5
Record
57%
2083-1561 (3644)
Invested
$11.74
Value
$11.61
PnL
-$0.13
Record
67%
23153-11555 (34708)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$27.37
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$19.69
Record
53%
3387-3055 (6442)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.09
Record
53%
15797-13980 (29777)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.68
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
12313-12578 (24891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.