Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. San Diego FC: Both Teams to Score

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,251

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$141.72

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$7.12

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 45.2¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	59% 44933-31331 (76264)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 67.7¢	$488	$525	+$9	56% 6940-5557 (12497)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.7¢	$406	$375	+$11
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$124	$150	-$2
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$88.81	$79.72	-$9.09	53% 3387-3055 (6442)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 54.9¢	$45.91	$55.63	+$9.72	50% 32969-32506 (65475)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 47.5¢	$50.1	$49.55	-$0.55	50% 10665-10524 (21189)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$41.04	$36.48	-$1.71	58% 28182-20778 (48960)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$24.19	$30.86	+$6.66	58% 41030-29693 (70723)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 67.8¢	$21.86	$24.83	+$2.97	55% 8132-6565 (14697)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$17.72	$17.49	-$0.23	57% 2083-1561 (3644)
RO Rocko33<$100	Yesavg 81.5¢	$16.84	$15.92	-$0.93	64% 1037-588 (1625)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$4.84	$5.06	+$0.22	47% 4483-4963 (9446)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.86	$2.88	+$0.03	53% 2109-1869 (3978)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.74	$0.87	+$0.13	59% 9529-6541 (16070)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.7	$0	-$1.7	60% 3263-2193 (5456)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$3,022.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

59%

44933-31331 (76264)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$488

Value

$525

PnL

+$9

Record

56%

6940-5557 (12497)

Both legs:

Invested

$88.81

Value

$79.72

PnL

-$9.09

Record

53%

3387-3055 (6442)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$45.91

Value

$55.63

PnL

+$9.72

Record

50%

32969-32506 (65475)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$50.1

Value

$49.55

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

10665-10524 (21189)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$41.04

Value

$36.48

PnL

-$1.71

Record

58%

28182-20778 (48960)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$24.19

Value

$30.86

PnL

+$6.66

Record

58%

41030-29693 (70723)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.86

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$2.97

Record

55%

8132-6565 (14697)

NordhavenCap<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.72

Value

$17.49

PnL

-$0.23

Record

57%

2083-1561 (3644)

Rocko33<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.84

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$0.93

Record

64%

1037-588 (1625)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Invested

$4.84

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

4483-4963 (9446)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2109-1869 (3978)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.13

Record

59%

9529-6541 (16070)

shiifooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

PnL

-$1.7

Record

60%

3263-2193 (5456)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.