Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (80%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Toronto FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 20¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$44.66
Research grade
AvoidOver at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Under 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $981.2 | $637.25 | -$343.95 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 64¢ | $260.14 | $353.49 | +$93.35 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 33¢ | $721.07 | $283.76 | -$437.3 | |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 60¢ | $176.88 | $169.18 | -$7.7 | 56% 6932-5550 (12482) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Overavg 35.6¢ | $180 | $133.84 | -$46.16 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 71.4¢ | $88.31 | $90.85 | +$2.54 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 61.3¢ | $15.93 | $22.59 | +$6.67 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$981.2
Value
$637.25
PnL
-$343.95
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$176.88
Value
$169.18
PnL
-$7.7
Record
56%
6932-5550 (12482)
Invested
$180
Value
$133.84
PnL
-$46.16
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
Invested
$88.31
Value
$90.85
PnL
+$2.54
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$15.93
Value
$22.59
PnL
+$6.67
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.