Toronto FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (17%) · Over at 57¢ · $506 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 17%
$505.54
-$43.3
Research grade
NeutralOver at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 62.7¢ | $315 | $266.11 | -$48.89 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 39.6¢ | $66.42 | $92.26 | +$25.84 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 39.5¢ | $110.26 | $83.37 | -$26.9 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 37¢ | $41.51 | $47.49 | +$5.98 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.6¢ | $15.2 | $15.66 | +$0.46 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $0.44 | $0.64 | +$0.21 | 59% 30128-20863 (50991) |
Invested
$315
Value
$266.11
PnL
-$48.89
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
Invested
$66.42
Value
$92.26
PnL
+$25.84
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
Invested
$110.26
Value
$83.37
PnL
-$26.9
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$41.51
Value
$47.49
PnL
+$5.98
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$15.2
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$0.46
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.64
PnL
+$0.21
Record
59%
30128-20863 (50991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.