Toronto FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$2.3K
-$130.27
81.8¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 80¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$152.51 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 89¢ | $455 | $429.44 | -$25.56 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 16¢ | $160 | $190 | +$5 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 13.8¢ | $90.74 | $128.66 | +$37.92 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.6¢ | $8.61 | $13.49 | +$4.88 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,675.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$152.51
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$455
Value
$429.44
PnL
-$25.56
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$160
Value
$190
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$90.74
Value
$128.66
PnL
+$37.92
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.61
Value
$13.49
PnL
+$4.88
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.