Will Toronto FC win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$901.61

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 64.5¢

-19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,247

Combined PnL-$908.71

Yes2 traders

Total Value$224.79

Total Shares516

Combined PnL+$7.1

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 80¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	-$911.25	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$701.22	$1.0K	+$348.35	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.6¢	$487.41	$838.16	+$350.75
└ No leg	Noavg 65.2¢	$213.82	$211.41	-$2.4
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 49¢	$245	$175.12	+$7.1	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$78.37	$73.66	-$4.71	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$49.67	$49.67	+$0	62% 4288-2646 (6934)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$29.15	$41.44	+$12.29	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 67.8¢	$37	$37.12	+$0.12	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 73¢	$16.22	$11.11	-$5.11	59% 30128-20863 (50991)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 66¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 47¢	$3.51	$3.66	+$0.15	53% 15769-13947 (29716)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$2,430

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$911.25

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$701.22

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$348.35

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Both legs:

Yes$487.4120.6¢+$350.75

No$213.8265.2¢-$2.4

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$245

Value

$175.12

PnL

+$7.1

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$78.37

Value

$73.66

PnL

-$4.71

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.67

Value

$49.67

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4288-2646 (6934)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$41.44

PnL

+$12.29

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$37

Value

$37.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$5.11

Record

59%

30128-20863 (50991)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.66

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.