Will Toronto FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 56¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes45¢No55¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$29.91

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 55.5¢

-25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,331

Combined PnL+$2.67

Yes5 traders

Total Value$684.1

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL+$27.24

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 73.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$3.24	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$361.54	$361.61	+$0.07	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
FO fooooolCTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$123.62	$157.22	+$33.6	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
GH ghostorderCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$148.5	$143	-$5.5	62% 4288-2646 (6934)
CA Cannae	Noavg 75¢	$103.05	$101.68	-$1.37	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 72¢	$49.48	$50.85	+$1.37	51% 448-435 (883)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 62¢	$26.23	$28.14	+$1.9	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.8¢	$19.4	$18.67	-$0.73	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
RO Rocko33<$100	Noavg 64¢	$20	$17.03	-$2.97	64% 1014-578 (1592)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.7	+$0.5	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
US User7429CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$3.8	$3.59	-$0.21	55% 8126-6560 (14686)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$2,253.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$3.24

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$361.54

Value

$361.61

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

fooooolCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.62

Value

$157.22

PnL

+$33.6

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

ghostorderCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.5

Value

$143

PnL

-$5.5

Record

62%

4288-2646 (6934)

Cannae

Invested

$103.05

Value

$101.68

PnL

-$1.37

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$49.48

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$1.37

Record

51%

448-435 (883)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$26.23

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$1.9

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.4

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$0.73

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Rocko33<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$17.03

PnL

-$2.97

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

User7429CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$0.21

Record

55%

8126-6560 (14686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.