Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 80¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$321.13

Smart Money Entry

62.1¢ → 80¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,830

Combined PnL+$335.78

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,281

Combined PnL-$14.65

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 47.3¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$622.33	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
GO gollaza	Noavg 79.9¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$298.11	66% 3040-1574 (4614)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 53¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$14.52	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
GH ghostorder	Noavg 47¢	$312.18	$315.46	+$3.28	62% 4288-2646 (6934)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$306.75	$290.23	-$16.52	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.1¢	$201.95	$223.19	+$21.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$104.81	$67.04	-$37.76
cassandra.torchlight	Noavg 73¢	$109.49	$112.49	+$2.25	50% 264-269 (533)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.2¢	$59.31	$61.08	+$1.77	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 49¢	$49	$53.5	+$4.5	53% 2097-1856 (3953)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$48.92	$46.55	-$1.37	51% 448-435 (883)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 63.6¢	$31.96	$34.2	+$2.24	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$11.78	$9.62	-$1.4	53% 2604-2347 (4951)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 47¢	$6.21	$6.27	+$0.07	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$4.2	$4.42	+$0.22	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.3¢	$2.61	$3.26	+$0.65	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.15	$2.38	-$0.77	58% 18441-13525 (31966)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,304.64

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$622.33

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

gollaza

Invested

$2,000.3

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$298.11

Record

66%

3040-1574 (4614)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$14.52

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

ghostorder

Invested

$312.18

Value

$315.46

PnL

+$3.28

Record

62%

4288-2646 (6934)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$306.75

Value

$290.23

PnL

-$16.52

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Both legs:

No$201.9570.1¢+$21.24

Yes$104.8135.2¢-$37.76

cassandra.torchlight

Invested

$109.49

Value

$112.49

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

264-269 (533)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.31

Value

$61.08

PnL

+$1.77

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$53.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

53%

2097-1856 (3953)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.92

Value

$46.55

PnL

-$1.37

Record

51%

448-435 (883)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$31.96

Value

$34.2

PnL

+$2.24

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.78

Value

$9.62

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

2604-2347 (4951)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$0.07

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.61

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.