Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 2 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

St. Louis City SC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5

2 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (13%) · Over at 35¢ · $58K held · ended Oct 31

Over35¢Under65¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 13%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$57.8K

Combined PnL

$9.6K

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 35¢

-34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over35%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$41.2K

Total Shares56,582

Combined PnL+$9.8K

Over2 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares82,579

Combined PnL-$145.35

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 47.4¢	$12.1K	$16.7K	+$4.6K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
TH theowalcottCTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$16.7K	$16.5K	-$145.35	50% 109-110 (219)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 47.4¢	$10.4K	$12.5K	+$2.1K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 47¢	$1.9K	$3.2K	+$19.78	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
us391	Underavg 47¢	$1.8K	$3.0K	+$1.2K	51% 1685-1650 (3335)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 48.3¢	$965	$1.6K	+$635	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 47.6¢	$670.55	$1.1K	+$456.65	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 47¢	$432.62	$736.37	+$303.75	39% 426-672 (1098)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 63¢	$652.05	$677.93	+$25.88	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
HRTrading	Underavg 47.4¢	$440.48	$571.03	+$130.55	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0xheavy888	Underavg 48.3¢	$290	$480	-$5	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 47.9¢	$215.95	$360.8	+$144.85	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
NA NatoAlfista	Underavg 48¢	$103.56	$172.6	+$69.04	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 62.9¢	$73.51	$75.94	+$2.85	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 63.2¢	$52.8	$53.73	+$0.93	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.2¢	$27.81	$28.38	+$0.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 35¢	$24.99	$25.35	+$0.36
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 60¢	$17.36	$23.15	+$5.79	46% 433-500 (933)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.65	+$0	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$12,069.36

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

theowalcottCTR

Over

Invested

$16,660.17

Value

$16.5K

PnL

-$145.35

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$10,380.34

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$1,859.32

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$19.78

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

us391

Under

Invested

$1,824.16

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

1685-1650 (3335)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$965

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$635

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$670.55

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$456.65

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$432.62

Value

$736.37

PnL

+$303.75

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$652.05

Value

$677.93

PnL

+$25.88

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$440.48

Value

$571.03

PnL

+$130.55

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$290

Value

$480

PnL

-$5

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$215.95

Value

$360.8

PnL

+$144.85

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

NatoAlfista

Under

Invested

$103.56

Value

$172.6

PnL

+$69.04

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$73.51

Value

$75.94

PnL

+$2.85

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$52.8

Value

$53.73

PnL

+$0.93

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

Under$27.8163.2¢+$0.57

Over$24.9935¢+$0.36

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$17.36

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$5.79

Record

46%

433-500 (933)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 35%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 16 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.