Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 7 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-10-31?

7 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 33¢ · $110K held · ended Oct 31

Yes33¢No67¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$109.5K

Combined PnL

$5.7K

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 32.5¢

-45% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 26 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$64.8K

Total Shares107,999

Combined PnL+$967.74

No19 traders

Total Value$34.9K

Total Shares65,382

Combined PnL+$4.7K

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Yesavg 59.5¢	$62.8K	$63.3K	+$1.0K	50% 109-110 (219)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 39.9¢	$13.1K	$18.2K	+$5.1K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$9.0K	$9.2K	+$173.36	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.9¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$43.15
└ No leg	Noavg 40¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$216.51
CA Cannae	Noavg 38.8¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$111.29	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 43.2¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$267.75	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
us391	Noavg 42.5¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$173.77	51% 1685-1650 (3335)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 43¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$166.95	49% 1168-1197 (2365)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Noavg 39¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$36.79	32% 731-1558 (2289)
ZH zhuz632CTR	Yesavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$24.32	51% 244-237 (481)
BA Bayupati	Noavg 40¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0	51% 227-222 (449)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 39.6¢	$800.78	$808.04	+$7.26	39% 426-672 (1098)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 38¢	$500	$526.31	+$26.32	51% 3939-3843 (7782)
NO Notradecopy	Noavg 38¢	$500	$526.31	+$26.32	49% 3929-4117 (8046)
OL olpyARB<$100	Noavg 66¢	$414.78	$417.57	+$2.79	73% 404-151 (555)
└ No leg	Noavg 66¢	$275.6	$281.86	+$6.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.3¢	$139.18	$135.71	-$3.47
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 45¢	$238.08	$224.85	-$13.23	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Noavg 65¢	$200	$184.62	-$15.38	53% 3195-2820 (6015)
0xheavy888	Noavg 40.5¢	$164	$160	-$4	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 43.6¢	$142.07	$138.57	-$3.49	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.6¢	$88.1	$80.89	-$7.2
└ No leg	Noavg 56.1¢	$53.97	$57.68	+$3.71
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 41.6¢	$72.31	$69.6	-$2.71	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$70	$67.78	-$2.22	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 50.7¢	$51.73	$50.95	-$0.78	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ No leg	Noavg 39¢	$15.78	$26.49	+$10.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.7¢	$35.95	$24.46	-$11.49
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$54	$41.49	-$12.52	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 52¢	$26	$21.25	-$4.75	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$15.82	$19.97	+$4.16	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$9.82	$9.66	-$0.16	53% 2197-1937 (4134)

theowalcottCTR

Yes

Invested

$62,809.25

Value

$63.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$13,072.09

Value

$18.2K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$9,014.22

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$173.36

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Yes$5,565.557.9¢-$43.15

No$3,448.7240¢+$216.51

Cannae

Invested

$3,580.05

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$111.29

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,993.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$267.75

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

us391

Invested

$2,916.22

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$173.77

Record

51%

1685-1650 (3335)

forecastication4

Invested

$2,051.1

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$166.95

Record

49%

1168-1197 (2365)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Invested

$1,434.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$36.79

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

zhuz632CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,483.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$24.32

Record

51%

244-237 (481)

Bayupati

Invested

$1,416

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

227-222 (449)

Oddstorm

Invested

$800.78

Value

$808.04

PnL

+$7.26

Record

39%

426-672 (1098)

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$500

Value

$526.31

PnL

+$26.32

Record

51%

3939-3843 (7782)

Notradecopy

Invested

$500

Value

$526.31

PnL

+$26.32

Record

49%

3929-4117 (8046)

olpyARB<$100

Invested

$414.78

Value

$417.57

PnL

+$2.79

Record

73%

404-151 (555)

Both legs:

No$275.666¢+$6.26

Yes$139.1833.3¢-$3.47

NordhavenCap

Invested

$238.08

Value

$224.85

PnL

-$13.23

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Invested

$200

Value

$184.62

PnL

-$15.38

Record

53%

3195-2820 (6015)

0xheavy888

Invested

$164

Value

$160

PnL

-$4

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$142.07

Value

$138.57

PnL

-$3.49

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

Yes$88.143.6¢-$7.2

No$53.9756.1¢+$3.71

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$72.31

Value

$69.6

PnL

-$2.71

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$70

Value

$67.78

PnL

-$2.22

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.73

Value

$50.95

PnL

-$0.78

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

No$15.7839¢+$10.72

Yes$35.9550.7¢-$11.49

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54

Value

$41.49

PnL

-$12.52

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$21.25

PnL

-$4.75

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.82

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$4.16

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.82

Value

$9.66

PnL

-$0.16

Record

53%

2197-1937 (4134)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 26 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

24% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.