Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold St. Louis City SC, while the market favors San Diego FC (87%). 2 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: St. Louis City SC (-1.5)

2 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold St. Louis City SC (15%) · St. Louis City SC at 13¢ · $62K held · ended Oct 31

St. Louis City SC13¢San Diego FC87¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

St. Louis City SC

Consensus Traders

St. Louis City SC 15%

Total Value

$61.8K

Combined PnL

$7.1K

Smart Money Entry

39.4¢ → 13¢

-67% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidSt. Louis City SC at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

St. Louis City SC

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego FC 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

St. Louis City SC13%

San Diego FC87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Louis City SC2 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares90,761

Combined PnL+$122.51

San Diego FC11 traders

Total Value$34.6K

Total Shares41,863

Combined PnL+$6.9K

St. Louis City SC — 15%San Diego FC — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on St. Louis City SC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Diego FC 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpSan Diego FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Diego FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSan Diego FC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000San Diego FC 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	St. Louis City SCavg 39.4¢	$27.1K	$27.2K	+$122.48	50% 109-110 (219)
UP UpTheBlues	San Diego FCavg 60.1¢	$12.9K	$18.9K	+$6.0K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhost	San Diego FCavg 61.5¢	$7.5K	$8.1K	+$609.25	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
VeryLucky888	San Diego FCavg 63¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$210	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
poshposh	San Diego FCavg 60.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	-$23.66	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
AN AnonymousUsername	San Diego FCavg 65.5¢	$947.08	$1.0K	-$71.64	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
0xheavy888	San Diego FCavg 64.7¢	$776	$840	-$50	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
JU justaluckydude	San Diego FCavg 71¢	$793.24	$782.07	-$11.17	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
HRTrading	San Diego FCavg 60.2¢	$539.31	$741.9	+$202.6	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
CA Cannae	San Diego FCavg 62.6¢	$656.48	$733.71	+$77.23	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	San Diego FCavg 84¢	$89.42	$92.6	+$3.18	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	San Diego FCavg 62.6¢	$72.57	$81.2	+$8.63	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	St. Louis City SCavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.95	+$0.03	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

theowalcottCTR

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$27,104.43

Value

$27.2K

PnL

+$122.48

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

UpTheBlues

San Diego FC

Invested

$12,882.73

Value

$18.9K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhost

San Diego FC

Invested

$7,482.87

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$609.25

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

VeryLucky888

San Diego FC

Invested

$1,890

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$210

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

poshposh

San Diego FC

Invested

$1,054.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$23.66

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

AnonymousUsername

San Diego FC

Invested

$947.08

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$71.64

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

0xheavy888

San Diego FC

Invested

$776

Value

$840

PnL

-$50

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

justaluckydude

San Diego FC

Invested

$793.24

Value

$782.07

PnL

-$11.17

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

HRTrading

San Diego FC

Invested

$539.31

Value

$741.9

PnL

+$202.6

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Cannae

San Diego FC

Invested

$656.48

Value

$733.71

PnL

+$77.23

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

topdogbigboi<$100

San Diego FC

Invested

$89.42

Value

$92.6

PnL

+$3.18

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

San Diego FC

Invested

$72.57

Value

$81.2

PnL

+$8.63

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

St. Louis City SC

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

AvoidSt. Louis City SC at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

St. Louis City SC

2 of 13 top traders (15%)Underdog side (market favors San Diego FC 87%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on St. Louis City SC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSan Diego FC 100% · 5

Diverging

sharpSan Diego FC 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSan Diego FC 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSan Diego FC 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000San Diego FC 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Louis City SC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.