Will San Diego FC win on 2026-10-31?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 62¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 61.5¢

-22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares9,000

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,831

Combined PnL-$147.48

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78.8¢	$7.3K	$5.9K	$-1.4K	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$873.61	$891.98	+$18.37	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.1¢	$650.25	$511.99	-$138.26
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.6¢	$223.36	$380	+$156.64
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$689.08	$602.95	-$86.14	32% 731-1558 (2289)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Yesavg 19¢	$423.82	$390.91	-$32.91	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$243.76	$244.69	+$0.93	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.5¢	$186.78	$193.56	+$6.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.2¢	$56.99	$51.14	-$5.85
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$98.04	$90.3	-$7.74	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$58.1	$62.76	+$4.65	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.6¢	$27.1	$32.01	+$4.9
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$31	$30.75	-$0.25
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$68.8	$61	-$7.8	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$32	$33	+$1
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$36.8	$28	-$8.8
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$77.48	$58.95	-$18.53	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$47.61	$45.74	-$1.87	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 80¢	$40	$41.25	+$1.25	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$24.93	$25.97	+$1.04	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$20	$18.67	-$1.33	59% 30499-21212 (51711)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$8.25	+$1.25	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$4.13	+$0.13	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 80¢	$1.68	$1.73	+$0.05	67% 23351-11752 (35103)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$7,263.02

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$873.61

Value

$891.98

PnL

+$18.37

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

Both legs:

No$650.2578.1¢-$138.26

Yes$223.3622.6¢+$156.64

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$689.08

Value

$602.95

PnL

-$86.14

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

NordhavenCapCTR

Yes

Invested

$423.82

Value

$390.91

PnL

-$32.91

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$243.76

Value

$244.69

PnL

+$0.93

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

Invested

$98.04

Value

$90.3

PnL

-$7.74

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$58.1

Value

$62.76

PnL

+$4.65

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.8

Value

$61

PnL

-$7.8

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Invested

$77.48

Value

$58.95

PnL

-$18.53

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.61

Value

$45.74

PnL

-$1.87

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$41.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.93

Value

$25.97

PnL

+$1.04

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$18.67

PnL

-$1.33

Record

59%

30499-21212 (51711)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.05

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.