Will St. Louis City SC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$94.78

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 71.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$688.81

Total Shares889

Combined PnL-$30.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$607.76

Total Shares2,308

Combined PnL+$124.95

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80¢	$507.26	$473.39	-$33.87	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$345.86	$470.73	+$124.87	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 79¢	$147.09	$149.9	+$2.81	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$106.03	$106.03	+$0	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$30.27	$30.99	+$0.72	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$30.6	$30.6	-$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$30.33	$30.52	+$0.19	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$4	-$0.03	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.31	$0.4	+$0.09	50% 33488-33047 (66535)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$507.26

Value

$473.39

PnL

-$33.87

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$345.86

Value

$470.73

PnL

+$124.87

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$147.09

Value

$149.9

PnL

+$2.81

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.03

Value

$106.03

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$30.27

Value

$30.99

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.6

Value

$30.6

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$30.33

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.