Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$75.92

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 49.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,051

Combined PnL+$110.91

Yes3 traders

Total Value$536.83

Total Shares1,063

Combined PnL-$34.99

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 45.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$109.81	49% 18554-18963 (37517)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 54.5¢	$931.14	$467.55	-$32.64	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 53.6¢	$45.79	$43.17	-$2.61	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$25.85	$26.1	+$0.26	53% 15721-13896 (29617)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.72	$6.44	+$0.71	50% 6768-6780 (13548)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$2.31	$2.6	+$0.29	53% 2956-2611 (5567)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$0.79	$0.88	+$0.1	52% 4645-4354 (8999)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$1,570.19

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$109.81

Record

49%

18554-18963 (37517)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$931.14

Value

$467.55

PnL

-$32.64

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.79

Value

$43.17

PnL

-$2.61

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.85

Value

$26.1

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

15721-13896 (29617)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

6768-6780 (13548)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

2956-2611 (5567)

hi774cCTR<$100

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

4645-4354 (8999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.