Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$6.24

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 74.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,153

Combined PnL+$43.06

Yes4 traders

Total Value$696.78

Total Shares2,730

Combined PnL-$36.82

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA Takon88	Noavg 73¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$38.66	58% 44-32 (76)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 27¢	$675	$637.5	-$37.5	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 72¢	$360	$365	+$2.5	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 72¢	$56.51	$58.41	+$1.91	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$44.47	$43.61	-$0.86	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$12.98	$14.34	+$1.36	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 75¢	$1.57	$1.56	-$0.01	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.33	+$0.18	58% 18441-13525 (31966)

Takon88

Invested

$1,881.5

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$38.66

Record

58%

44-32 (76)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$675

Value

$637.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$360

Value

$365

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$56.51

Value

$58.41

PnL

+$1.91

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.47

Value

$43.61

PnL

-$0.86

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.98

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$1.36

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.56

PnL

-$0.01

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.