Will St. Louis City SC vs. Portland Timbers end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $394 held · ended Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$394.19

Combined PnL

$3.12

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 99.3¢

+22% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$123.32

Total Shares1,288

Combined PnL-$13.66

No5 traders

Total Value$270.87

Total Shares307

Combined PnL+$16.79

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$100	$101.49	+$20	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$87.22	$92.11	+$4.89	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 75¢	$90	$91.2	+$1.2	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$42.75	$49.65	+$6.9	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$50.44	$24.51	+$3.27	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$49.37	$14.68	-$34.69	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 73¢	$12.87	$13.4	+$0.53	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$4.5	$5.5	+$1	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.63	$1.66	+$0.03	49% 12209-12458 (24667)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$100

Value

$101.49

PnL

+$20

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$87.22

Value

$92.11

PnL

+$4.89

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$90

Value

$91.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$42.75

Value

$49.65

PnL

+$6.9

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

NordhavenCap<$100

Invested

$50.44

Value

$24.51

PnL

+$3.27

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.37

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$34.69

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$12.87

Value

$13.4

PnL

+$0.53

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$1

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.03

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.