Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 47¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$409.36

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 47¢

-27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,576

Combined PnL-$172.24

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,171

Combined PnL-$237.12

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 68.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$18.26	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$257.29	32% 731-1558 (2289)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 55.6¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$120.85	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 70¢	$984.59	$770.47	-$214.12	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 62.6¢	$686.14	$595.3	-$90.84	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 29¢	$341.78	$361.12	+$19.34	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 57¢	$265.85	$258.93	-$6.92	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 31¢	$200	$196.77	-$3.23	64% 1125-646 (1771)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 30¢	$154.89	$157.47	+$2.58	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 42.6¢	$78.4	$79.98	+$1.59	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.6¢	$43.06	$46.51	+$3.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$35.33	$33.47	-$1.86
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 53¢	$69.93	$69.26	-$0.67	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Underavg 64.2¢	$61.21	$65.94	+$4.73	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.2¢	$32.71	$35.44	+$2.73
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.5¢	$28.5	$30.5	+$2
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 30.5¢	$20	$20.01	+$0.01	67% 23351-11752 (35103)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 32¢	$3.23	$5.45	+$2.22	60% 3370-2270 (5640)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 31¢	$5.1	$5.02	-$0.08	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.1	+$0.35	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$1.17	$1.35	+$0.18	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$2,023.54

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$18.26

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,653.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$257.29

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,182.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$120.85

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$984.59

Value

$770.47

PnL

-$214.12

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$686.14

Value

$595.3

PnL

-$90.84

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$341.78

Value

$361.12

PnL

+$19.34

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$265.85

Value

$258.93

PnL

-$6.92

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$196.77

PnL

-$3.23

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$154.89

Value

$157.47

PnL

+$2.58

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$78.4

Value

$79.98

PnL

+$1.59

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Both legs:

Over$43.0642.6¢+$3.45

Under$35.3357¢-$1.86

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$69.93

Value

$69.26

PnL

-$0.67

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$61.21

Value

$65.94

PnL

+$4.73

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

Both legs:

Under$32.7164.2¢+$2.73

Over$28.528.5¢+$2

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$20.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$3.23

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$2.22

Record

60%

3370-2270 (5640)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.