Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (84%). 5 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 17¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over84¢Under16¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$218.65

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 16.5¢

-60% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over84%

Under17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares11,550

Combined PnL-$890.35

Over11 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares7,431

Combined PnL+$671.71

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$3.8K	$2.9K	-$922.77	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$378.66	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 55¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$266.72	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 68.2¢	$891.92	$886.26	-$5.65	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 33.1¢	$716.85	$736.09	+$19.24	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 32¢	$232.23	$246.74	+$10.89	49% 1168-1197 (2365)
RO Rocko33	Overavg 57¢	$200	$233.33	+$33.33	64% 1125-646 (1771)
FO foooool	Overavg 83¢	$199.19	$200.39	+$1.2	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 77.4¢	$119.68	$103.48	-$16.2	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100	Overavg 57¢	$90.15	$91.95	+$1.8	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57¢	$57	$66.5	+$9.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.6¢	$33.15	$25.45	-$7.7
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 32.2¢	$39.41	$41.66	+$2.24	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 57¢	$30	$35	+$5	67% 23351-11752 (35103)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Overavg 57¢	$28.5	$33.25	+$4.75	85% 5371-932 (6303)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 65.8¢	$17.34	$17.53	+$0.19	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 57¢	$13.65	$15.93	+$2.28	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 56¢	$7.98	$9.41	+$1.43	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$1.65	$1.7	+$0.05	48% 2424-2645 (5069)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$3,780.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$922.77

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,818.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$378.66

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$1,275.62

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$266.72

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$891.92

Value

$886.26

PnL

-$5.65

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$716.85

Value

$736.09

PnL

+$19.24

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$232.23

Value

$246.74

PnL

+$10.89

Record

49%

1168-1197 (2365)

Rocko33

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$233.33

PnL

+$33.33

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

foooool

Over

Invested

$199.19

Value

$200.39

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$119.68

Value

$103.48

PnL

-$16.2

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$90.15

Value

$91.95

PnL

+$1.8

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

Both legs:

Over$5757¢+$9.5

Under$33.1543.6¢-$7.7

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.41

Value

$41.66

PnL

+$2.24

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$35

PnL

+$5

Record

67%

23351-11752 (35103)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Over

Invested

$28.5

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$4.75

Record

85%

5371-932 (6303)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$17.34

Value

$17.53

PnL

+$0.19

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$13.65

Value

$15.93

PnL

+$2.28

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$7.98

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$1.43

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors Over 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.2%

16.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$448.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

548.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.