Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sporting Kansas City (33%) · Sporting Kansas City at 85¢ · $453 held · ended Oct 31

FC Dallas16¢Sporting Kansas City84¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sporting Kansas City

Consensus Traders

Sporting Kansas City 33%

Total Value

$453.25

Combined PnL

-$19.12

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 84.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSporting Kansas City at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sporting Kansas City

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FC Dallas16%

Sporting Kansas City85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sporting Kansas City3 traders

Total Value$235.68

Total Shares326

Combined PnL-$33.29

FC Dallas6 traders

Total Value$217.57

Total Shares606

Combined PnL+$14.17

Sporting Kansas City — 33%FC Dallas — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Sporting Kansas Cityavg 83.5¢	$244.2	$213.57	-$30.63	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
LU LuckyLooCTR	FC Dallasavg 31¢	$127.59	$139.94	+$12.35	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	FC Dallasavg 28¢	$50.19	$47.36	-$2.83	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	FC Dallasavg 29¢	$22.21	$26.04	+$3.83	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Sporting Kansas Cityavg 74.8¢	$12.72	$11.22	-$1.5	85% 5371-932 (6303)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Sporting Kansas Cityavg 73¢	$12.05	$10.89	-$1.15	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	FC Dallasavg 30¢	$2.1	$2.38	+$0.28	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
HRTradingCTR<$100	FC Dallasavg 25¢	$1.03	$1.4	+$0.37	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FC Dallasavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.44	+$0.17	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

foooool

Sporting Kansas City

Invested

$244.2

Value

$213.57

PnL

-$30.63

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

LuckyLooCTR

FC Dallas

Invested

$127.59

Value

$139.94

PnL

+$12.35

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

FC Dallas

Invested

$50.19

Value

$47.36

PnL

-$2.83

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

CannaeCTR<$100

FC Dallas

Invested

$22.21

Value

$26.04

PnL

+$3.83

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Sporting Kansas City

Invested

$12.72

Value

$11.22

PnL

-$1.5

Record

85%

5371-932 (6303)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Sporting Kansas City

Invested

$12.05

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

FC Dallas

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0.28

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

HRTradingCTR<$100

FC Dallas

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FC Dallas

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralSporting Kansas City at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sporting Kansas City

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sporting Kansas City wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.