Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to Score

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$442.51

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 99.5¢

+49% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$777.29

Total Shares1,054

Combined PnL+$56.92

No6 traders

Total Value$173.01

Total Shares1,943

Combined PnL-$499.44

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO foooool	Yesavg 62.2¢	$358.56	$354.02	-$4.53	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 65¢	$235.26	$199.84	-$35.42	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
BE Betyourself	Yesavg 71¢	$249.99	$145.07	+$101.17	64% 2255-1266 (3521)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$48	$86.25	+$38.25	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 38.2¢	$113.2	$76.14	-$37.06	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58¢	$30.33	$44.72	+$14.38
└ No leg	Noavg 38.2¢	$82.87	$31.42	-$51.44
VA Vampiro1<$100	Yesavg 91.8¢	$74.95	$69.8	-$5.15	77% 3341-1010 (4351)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 35.6¢	$583.61	$49.16	-$534.44	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 20.9¢	$26.67	$19.59	-$7.08	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$5.15	$8.71	+$3.56	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Yesavg 77¢	$7.7	$8.55	+$0.85	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 34.4¢	$6.37	$7.12	+$0.75	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$2.65	$2.18	-$0.48	47% 4586-5092 (9678)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$358.56

Value

$354.02

PnL

-$4.53

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$235.26

Value

$199.84

PnL

-$35.42

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Betyourself

Yes

Invested

$249.99

Value

$145.07

PnL

+$101.17

Record

64%

2255-1266 (3521)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$86.25

PnL

+$38.25

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$113.2

Value

$76.14

PnL

-$37.06

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

Both legs:

Invested

$74.95

Value

$69.8

PnL

-$5.15

Record

77%

3341-1010 (4351)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$583.61

Value

$49.16

PnL

-$534.44

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$26.67

Value

$19.59

PnL

-$7.08

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$3.56

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

NordhavenCap<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.7

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.85

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$6.37

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0.75

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.