San Jose Earthquakes vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 5.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 86¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 86¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares8,121

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,634

Combined PnL-$267.06

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Overavg 13¢	$963.08	$3.1K	+$2.1K	32% 731-1558 (2289)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 87¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$153.32	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$140	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 79.3¢	$812.69	$845.16	+$32.46	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 36.8¢	$184.2	$207.5	+$23.3	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
0xheavy888	Underavg 87¢	$116	$117	+$1	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 52.7¢	$77.11	$89.54	+$12.42	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$73.68	$65.13	-$8.56	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 75.4¢	$37.69	$33.75	-$3.94	47% 4596-5101 (9697)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 87¢	$41.76	$28.08	-$13.68	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$8.58	$16.97	+$8.38	59% 30514-21223 (51737)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 87¢	$8.7	$5.85	-$2.85	48% 2435-2653 (5088)
US User7429<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.75	$3.6	+$0.85	55% 8318-6708 (15026)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Over

Invested

$963.08

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,771.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$153.32

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,740

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$140

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$812.69

Value

$845.16

PnL

+$32.46

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$184.2

Value

$207.5

PnL

+$23.3

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$116

Value

$117

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$77.11

Value

$89.54

PnL

+$12.42

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.68

Value

$65.13

PnL

-$8.56

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$37.69

Value

$33.75

PnL

-$3.94

Record

47%

4596-5101 (9697)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$41.76

Value

$28.08

PnL

-$13.68

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.58

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$8.38

Record

59%

30514-21223 (51737)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$8.7

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$2.85

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

User7429<$100

Under

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.85

Record

55%

8318-6708 (15026)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.