Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold San Jose Earthquakes (50%) · San Jose Earthquakes at 98¢ · $162 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
San Jose Earthquakes
6
San Jose Earthquakes 50%
$161.63
-$3.36
94.7¢ → 98¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSan Jose Earthquakes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | San Jose Earthquakesavg 94.9¢ | $124.68 | $125.9 | +$1.22 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
NO NordhavenCap<$100 | San Jose Earthquakesavg 93¢ | $23.25 | $23.99 | +$0.74 | 57% 2171-1606 (3777) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | San Jose Earthquakesavg 95.9¢ | $9.59 | $9.67 | +$0.08 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Real Salt Lakeavg 17¢ | $7.02 | $1.67 | -$5.35 | 53% 15998-14180 (30178) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Real Salt Lakeavg 5¢ | $0.39 | $0.31 | -$0.07 | 50% 25253-24999 (50252) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Real Salt Lakeavg 3¢ | $0.07 | $0.1 | +$0.03 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
Invested
$124.68
Value
$125.9
PnL
+$1.22
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Invested
$23.25
Value
$23.99
PnL
+$0.74
Record
57%
2171-1606 (3777)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.67
PnL
+$0.08
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
Invested
$7.02
Value
$1.67
PnL
-$5.35
Record
53%
15998-14180 (30178)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.07
Record
50%
25253-24999 (50252)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.1
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.